THIS MONTH’S ISSUE
Don’t Fret Geopolitics: Supply and Demand Will Propel Energy to New Heights
Editor’s note: This month’s issue is in two parts. On Tuesday, we sent part one. It’s the complete transcript and recording of “Our Thoughts on the Summer of Energy,”—a conversation from this past weekend featuring our thoughts on energy markets and investing. We hope you enjoy it. Part two is in your hands now. We update our portfolios and the Endangered Dividends List. And we present a few more thoughts on developments at individual companies, including what appears to be accelerating M&A activity. Note our latest addition to the EIA Model Portfolio: Venture Global Inc (NYSE: VG), an up and coming LNG export facility operator we think could eventually outgrow current leader Cheniere Energy Partners (NYSE: CQP). Our live webchat this month is Thursday afternoon, June 26 starting at 2pm. You can email questions to service@capitalisttimes.com beforehand. Thanks for reading!—EG, RC Supply and demand: Where they intersect is what governs commodity prices, including energy. In fact, literally nothing else is important to energy investment returns. That is, unless it ultimately does truly affect underlying supply and demand. And that means politics, including of the geopolitical variety that occasionally rock the headlines. That’s critical to keep in mind as we...
Live Chat
with Elliott Gue and Roger ConradOn 07/29/2025
Sell Occidental, Buy Permian Resources
Last year, the value trade in energy was natural gas. NYMEX natural gas prices averaged around $2.27/MMBtu and front-month gas prices dipped well below $2.00 in the spring and autumn “shoulder” seasons for gas. At those prices, even the highest quality producers struggle to generate free cash flow. Into that bearish backdrop, we saw an opportunity. Specifically, with many investors focused on the weak front-month and spot pricing for natural gas, the market was ignoring the fundamental shifts underway in the US gas market. Of course, one factor is the ongoing strong growth in US electricity driven, at least to...
Cutting Debt Without Cutting Dividends
Endangered Dividends List companies are vulnerable for one or more of the following reasons: Cash flow coverage of distributions is inadequate. Elevated debt levels with imminent refinancing needs. Revenue pressure triggered by weakness for at least one key asset. Inability to access the equity market on favorable terms to fund capital spending, forcing management to utilize more internally generated cash flow. Exposure to volatility in commodity margins from either rising or falling prices of raw materials. Aggressive general partners anxious to buy in limited partners’ cash flows at discounted prices. Regulatory reversals. Expiring contracts with little hope for renewals at...
Watching Price in Volatile Times
There are still a couple weeks left in calendar Q2. And we won’t have all the numbers and guidance updates for the energy companies in the Model Portfolio—or on the High Yield Energy List—for five to six weeks after that. In fact, most companies have yet to announce a date to release numbers. But we can already get a pretty good idea of what to expect for our recommendations from developments the past few months. And from our vantage point, the portents are encouraging from a business health and dividend growth standpoint. In fact, if there is a challenge it...
Meet Our Editors
Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst
Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.
Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst
Roger S. Conrad has successfully advised income investors since the 1980s, with a nationally acclaimed sector specialty in utilities, telecommunications and energy. He’s a managing partner of Capitalist Times author of Power Hungry, independent director of NYSE-listed Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund and contributing editor to Forbes.com.
