THIS MONTH’S ISSUE
Energy Stocks: Suffering Far Less, Recovering Much Faster if the Bear Worsens
The S&P 500 Energy Index has returned more than 63 percent year to date. That’s an extraordinary and historic outperformance of pretty much everything else in the stock or bond market, including more than 80 percentage points better than the overall S&P 500. And best of all, it’s set to continue. The sector hasn’t been wholly immune from market jitters, particularly where rising recession risk is concerned. And despite a strong rally off mid-September lows, the S&P Energy Index is still about 4 percentage points off the June high. Benchmark oil prices are nearly one-third lower than their early summer highs. Benchmark natural gas is little more than half where it traded back in August. And a lack of pipeline capacity combined with increased production has taken prices down toward zero in some regions of the country, even as many countries in Europe and Asia scramble in vain to lock up winter supplies at affordable prices. Energy prices would likely go lower if the Federal Reserve pushes the US and global economy into recession, in the name of quelling inflation. But while up until very recently that possibility would have crushed energy stocks even more, it hasn’t to date. We ...
Live Chat
with Elliott Gue and Roger ConradOn 11/29/2022
Midstream Dividends Rising Again, Prices To Follow
Forget the Fed, Russia and windfall profits tax threats. The big news in energy this week is dividend increases, most impressively at Model Portfolio midstream companies MPLX LP (NYSE: MPLX) 10 percent boost and Energy Transfer LP (NYSE: ET). MPLX was one of four midstream companies that did not cut dividends during the energy sector’s super down-cycle that began in mid-2014. But in April 2020, management rattled investors by suspending the string of quarterly increases dating back to the company’s formation in 2013. That set off speculation of a future cut, pushing the stock down to a price where it ...
Energy Earnings Better Than Ever
Benchmark oil prices were sometimes as much as $40 a barrel higher in Q3 2022 than in the year earlier period. So it’s understandable investor expectations were quite high for energy company earnings this time around. Remarkably, it now appears they were too pessimistic, at least for EIA Model Portfolio companies reporting so far. In the issue posting October 26, we highlighted the increased guidance at midstream bellwether Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE: KMI) and services leader SLB (NYSE: SLB), formerly Schlumberger. The latest evidence is the at least equally encouraging results at five more Portfolio recommendations: ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Hess ...
Live at the Orlando MoneyShow 2022
I'm excited to announce that Roger Conrad and I will be attending the Orlando MoneyShow 2022 live and in-person Oct. 31, 2022 at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate. We're at a critical juncture right now in the markets and economy, which makes it extremely important to stay ahead of the curve with the most up-to-date intelligence about the markets and the catalysts driving them. Use my exclusive discount code TWMSSPK20 to save 20% on a standard pass to this year's conference. And I want to personally invite you to join me for my in-depth presentation, "Stagflation, Recession, and the ...
Meet Our Editors
Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst
Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.
Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst
Roger S. Conrad has successfully advised income investors since the 1980s, with a nationally acclaimed sector specialty in utilities, telecommunications and energy. He’s a managing partner of Capitalist Times author of Power Hungry, independent director of NYSE-listed Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund and contributing editor to Forbes.com.
