THIS MONTH’S ISSUE
Mid-Year Commodity Outlook
Second-quarter earnings season for the energy patch is just getting underway and we’ll have more, a lot more, to say about our EIA Model Portfolio recommendations in the next issue. This week, we decided to step back and answer one of the most common questions we’re asked at conferences, on radio and podcast interviews and in our monthly webchats with subscribers – our short, intermediate and long-term outlook for crude oil and natural gas prices. Specifically, we’ll undertake a deep dive analysis of key factors driving commodity supply and demand into and how this informs our overall portfolio strategy. And, the Energy Institute recently released its annual Statistical Review of Word Energy, a treasure trove of statistics regarding the global energy business with data stretching back to the mid-1960s. We’ll take a look at the latest trends in a historical context, including our big picture look at fossil fuels. In This Issue Feature Article: Mid-Year Outlook for Oil, Gas and Fossil Fuels Portfolio Strategy Endangered Dividends List The Actively Managed Portfolio holds our top recommendations in a $100,000 hypothetical model, including specific position sizes. Our High Yield Energy List focuses on big distribution stocks that meet five criteria: (1) Yield...
Live Chat
with Elliott Gue and Roger ConradOn 07/31/2024
Portfolio Strategy
Here’s our latest portfolio table – we’ll be back with more coverage and updates on individual recommendations as earnings season progresses. See our Dream Buy Prices table.
Mid-Year Outlook for Oil, Gas and Fossil Fuels
One of my favorite annual reports on global energy markets is the Statistical Review of World Energy, typically released around the middle of the year. For many years it was published by BP (London: BP/; NYSE: BP); the supermajor recently passed the baton to the Energy Institute, a London-based professional membership group for those in the energy industry. Regardless, the Statistical Review is a veritable treasure trove of data on the global energy business including supply and demand statistics broken out by country and region and dating as far back as 1965. I’ve been an avid reader of the Review...
Endangered Dividends List
Endangered Dividends List companies are vulnerable for one or more of the following reasons: Cash flow coverage of distributions is inadequate. Elevated debt levels with imminent refinancing needs. Revenue pressure triggered by weakness for at least one key asset. Inability to access the equity market on favorable terms to fund capital spending, forcing management to utilize more internally generated cash flow. Exposure to volatility in commodity margins from either rising or falling prices of raw materials. Aggressive general partners anxious to buy in limited partners’ cash flows at discounted prices. Regulatory reversals. Expiring contracts with little hope for renewals at...
Meet Our Editors
Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst
Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.
Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst
Roger S. Conrad has successfully advised income investors since the 1980s, with a nationally acclaimed sector specialty in utilities, telecommunications and energy. He’s a managing partner of Capitalist Times author of Power Hungry, independent director of NYSE-listed Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund and contributing editor to Forbes.com.
