THIS MONTH’S ISSUE
Sleep-Walking into a Global Energy Crisis—And an Industry Windfall
Sub-$40 oil? That’s what at least one major Wall Street firm is now projecting, based on the assumption that an emerging global supply glut will overwhelm tepid demand by early 2026. We don’t see it. In fact, historically when investor sentiment has been this gloomy for energy prices, the result has been a powerful rally for oil and natural gas. But for energy investors, the larger point is this industry is far more resilient now than it was a decade ago. Debt is a fraction of previous levels. And where there were literally hundreds of North American shale producers and midstream companies, now there are less than a dozen of each group that are large enough to matter. Scale up and down the value chain means companies can now take a punch where they couldn’t really in 2015. And the speculative building of a decade ago has been decisively replaced by what have now been years of shale discipline. Bottom line: The industry is better prepared than ever for slackening demand and even much lower commodity prices. And management is squarely focused on pushing costs even lower, which we’re going to see once again in Q3 earnings and guidance calls...
Live Chat
with Elliott Gue and Roger ConradOn 11/25/2025
Testing New Issue
Sub-$40 oil? That’s what at least one major Wall Street firm is now projecting, based on the assumption that an emerging global supply glut will overwhelm tepid demand by early 2026. We don’t see it. In fact, historically when investor sentiment has been this gloomy for energy prices, the result has been a powerful rally for oil and natural gas. But for energy investors, the larger point is this industry is far more resilient now than it was a decade ago. Debt is a fraction of previous levels. And where there were literally hundreds of North American shale producers and midstream companies, now there are less...
The Year of Natural Gas: Commodity Price Outlook and Our Thoughts on the Natural Gas E&Ps
A little over a year ago, we first called 2025 “The Year of Natural Gas.” In short, our view was that ongoing demand growth for natural gas as fuel for power generation coupled with the start-up of approximately 4 bcf/day of new US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities between Q4 2024 and early 2026 would drive a recovery in US gas prices from the depressed levels that prevailed through most of 2024. Accordingly, our favorite producers, with assets in low-cost plays like the Marcellus Shale of Appalachia, would benefit from surging free cash flow and an upside re-rating to...
Lower Commodity Prices will Pressure Some Payouts
Endangered Dividends List companies are vulnerable for one or more of the following reasons: Cash flow coverage of distributions is inadequate. Elevated debt levels with imminent refinancing needs. Revenue pressure triggered by weakness for at least one key asset. Inability to access the equity market on favorable terms to fund capital spending, forcing management to utilize more internally generated cash flow. Exposure to volatility in commodity margins from either rising or falling prices of raw materials. Aggressive general partners anxious to buy in limited partners’ cash flows at discounted prices. Regulatory reversals. Expiring contracts with little hope for renewals at...
Meet Our Editors
Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst
Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.
Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst
Roger S. Conrad has successfully advised income investors since the 1980s, with a nationally acclaimed sector specialty in utilities, telecommunications and energy. He’s a managing partner of Capitalist Times author of Power Hungry, independent director of NYSE-listed Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund and contributing editor to Forbes.com.
