THIS MONTH’S ISSUE
The Future is Bright for Oil and Gas
Nine times in ten, big number forecasts for energy wind up wildly revised. Remember those massive projections of just a few years ago from the US Energy Information Administration for offshore wind growth? Dozens of projects were once planned. But only one facility actually produces electricity today. And prospects are highly uncertain for the other five still in development, What about the consensus forecast for a nuclear power renaissance of a few years earlier. After the Fukushima disaster, just two entered service. And only two of the 110 new coal plants on the drawing board in the mid ‘00s are running today—as much cheaper natural gas courtesy of the North American shale revolution made the rest wholly uneconomic. ExxonMobil’s (NYSE: XOM) 2050 Energy Outlook is the exception. The difference isn’t really in the data. It’s the analysis, a private sector perspective that’s tested and tempered daily by real life business developments. ExxonMobil issued its most recent forecast in late August. It’s based on two key premises. First, the Earth’s population will rise from 8 billion to roughly 10 billion people. And second, the ongoing push in the developing world will raise 4 billion people to a “modern energy minimum.” Both...
Live Chat
with Elliott Gue and Roger ConradOn 10/29/2025
Refiners and Tankers – Time to Buy?
Year-to-date through Friday September 19th, the S&P 500 was up about 14.2% while the S&P 500 Energy Index returned just 5% over a similar holding period. Since the close 1 year ago on Friday September 20th, 2024 the gap is even larger with the S&P 500 up 18.2% and the S&P 500 Energy Index up just 3%. So, to the casual observer, and the talking heads in the mainstream media, that’s enough to conclude energy stocks are significant underperformers this year. The truth of the matter is that the S&P 500 Energy Index, and ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500...
Endangered Dividends List
Endangered Dividends List companies are vulnerable for one or more of the following reasons: Cash flow coverage of distributions is inadequate. Elevated debt levels with imminent refinancing needs. Revenue pressure triggered by weakness for at least one key asset. Inability to access the equity market on favorable terms to fund capital spending, forcing management to utilize more internally generated cash flow. Exposure to volatility in commodity margins from either rising or falling prices of raw materials. Aggressive general partners anxious to buy in limited partners’ cash flows at discounted prices. Regulatory reversals. Expiring contracts with little hope for renewals at...
Focus on Building Positions
Call it another cautionary tale against following politics-based investing strategies. So far in 2025, the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is up 32 percent. That’s 28 percentage points ahead of the SPDR Energy ETF (XLE), despite the most anti-renewable energy, pro-fossil fuels presidential administration in history. The lesson is once again that there are other factors vastly more important to energy investing than politics. And this year, it’s been softer oil and gas prices slowing down the gains of the past several years. Our Model Portfolio stocks are still well in the black for this year. And our recommendations have raised...
Meet Our Editors
Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst
Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.
Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst
Roger S. Conrad has successfully advised income investors since the 1980s, with a nationally acclaimed sector specialty in utilities, telecommunications and energy. He’s a managing partner of Capitalist Times author of Power Hungry, independent director of NYSE-listed Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund and contributing editor to Forbes.com.
