THIS MONTH’S ISSUE
Sleep-Walking into a Global Energy Crisis—And an Industry Windfall
Sub-$40 oil? That’s what at least one major Wall Street firm is now projecting, based on the assumption that an emerging global supply glut will overwhelm tepid demand by early 2026. We don’t see it. In fact, historically when investor sentiment has been this gloomy for energy prices, the result has been a powerful rally for oil and natural gas. But for energy investors, the larger point is this industry is far more resilient now than it was a decade ago. Debt is a fraction of previous levels. And where there were literally hundreds of North American shale producers and midstream companies, now there are less than a dozen of each group that are large enough to matter. Scale up and down the value chain means companies can now take a punch where they couldn’t really in 2015. And the speculative building of a decade ago has been decisively replaced by what have now been years of shale discipline. Bottom line: The industry is better prepared than ever for slackening demand and even much lower commodity prices. And management is squarely focused on pushing costs even lower, which we’re going to see once again in Q3 earnings and guidance calls...
Live Chat
with Elliott Gue and Roger ConradOn 10/29/2025
Lower Commodity Prices will Pressure Some Payouts
Endangered Dividends List companies are vulnerable for one or more of the following reasons: Cash flow coverage of distributions is inadequate. Elevated debt levels with imminent refinancing needs. Revenue pressure triggered by weakness for at least one key asset. Inability to access the equity market on favorable terms to fund capital spending, forcing management to utilize more internally generated cash flow. Exposure to volatility in commodity margins from either rising or falling prices of raw materials. Aggressive general partners anxious to buy in limited partners’ cash flows at discounted prices. Regulatory reversals. Expiring contracts with little hope for renewals at...
What to Expect in Q3 Results and a Fresh Buy
Over the next few weeks, our EIA Portfolio recommendations will report their Q3 numbers and update their guidance. Here are the announced dates, with companies yet to set official dates indicated with an asterisk (*): Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKR)—October 23 Black Stone Minerals (NYSE: BSM)—November 3 Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX)—October 31 CrossAmerica Partners (NYSE: CAPL)—November 5 Dorchester Minerals LP (NYSE: DMLP)—November 7* Energy Transfer LP(NYSE: ET)—November 5 Enterprise Products Partners(NYSE: EPD)—October 30 EOG Resources(NYSE: EOG)—November 7 EQT Corp (NYSE: EQT)—October 21 Expand Energy (NYSE: EXE)—October 28 ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)—October 31 Hess Midstream (NYSE: HESM)—October 28 Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE: KMI)—October...
Energy Outlook October 2025 Through the Remainder of the Year
You might recall a little earlier this year I visited my colleague Elliott Gue at his residence in beautiful sunny Florida where had a sit down. We met up again last weekend following the Orlando Money Show, and sat down again to share our thoughts on the energy markets for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. We'll be updating the portfolios later but right now we wanted to welcome you into our conversation. Just click the play button on the audio player below. We've also included a transcript for you that you can download in PDF format by...
Meet Our Editors
Elliott H. Gue
Founder and Chief Analyst
Since earning his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from the University of London, Elliott has dedicated himself to learning the ins and outs of this dynamic sector, scouring trade magazines, attending industry conferences, touring facilities and meeting with management teams.
Roger S. Conrad
Founder and Chief Analyst
Roger S. Conrad has successfully advised income investors since the 1980s, with a nationally acclaimed sector specialty in utilities, telecommunications and energy. He’s a managing partner of Capitalist Times author of Power Hungry, independent director of NYSE-listed Miller Howard High Income Equity Fund and contributing editor to Forbes.com.
